From Wrigley

Ok, so maybe you don’t know that Sublime song, but that doesn’t matter.  What does matter is that the Cubs are opening up an eight game homestand tonight against NL Central opponents, the Cincinnati Reds.  The Cubs and Reds have been dueling for over a hundred years and it is a little odd to be facing them for the first time so late in the season.  It seems like every season opener either the Cubs are in Cincy, or they are up here.

But I digress, if you’re reading right now you’re interested in the upcoming game, not my prattlings on the history surrounding these two clubs.  The Cubs are going up against 6th year starter, and Reds’ staff ace Aaron Harang.  Taking the hill for the Cubs tonight is the only starting pitcher that has had a quality start every time out this season, and I can’t believe I’m not making this up, Ryan Dempster.  I don’t think anyone, myself at the top of that list, had any faith in Dempster’s ability to be quality starter for the Cubs.  Or any other team for that matter.  But here we are, he’s got three starts under his belt, and has played the role Carlos Zambrano should be starring in.

Lets take a look at Aaron Harang, shall we?  Harang has come into his own the last couple of seasons, notching 16 wins in each of the last two campaigns while sporting a career 4.11 ERA.  One thing is for sure about Harang, he strikes a lot of people out, tallying 216 and 218 fans, respectively, in 2006 and 2007, while only issuing 108 free passes in the same time frame.  From Harang you can look for a study diet of low 90s fastballs while using his slider and a very effective change that he works in and out of the strike zone all day long.  That is of course, assuming he’s hitting his spots.  When he’s a little bit off he tends to leave his fastball up in the zone, which has come back to bite him in the past with the long ball.  The Cubs should also probably look to run on Harang and battery mate Javier Valentin.  Valentin has above average arm strength and a quick release, but Harang doesn’t hold runners well and takes his time to delivery the ball.  Someone with a good jump, like Pie, Soriano, Theriot, or Fukudome should be able to swipe a few bases between them.

The Cubs have had moderate success against the big Reds’ righty, especially when it comes to the long ball.  Derrek Lee has gone yard four times and Aramis Ramirez three times on Harang, knocking in a total of twelve runs.  The rest of the team has largely faired so-so against Harang, and Geovany Soto will look to continue the path he’s on both this season and against Harang, whom he is 3-4 with two doubles against.

Not much to be said right now about Dempster except that I hold my breath and expect this fantasy to end.  His performances have been great and he really got cheated out of a win in Pittsburgh last Wednesday.  I don’t think he had the same stuff he had in his first  start last Wednesday, but he was efficient and located his pitches well, leaving in the seventh after throwing 98 pitches.  Against the current batch of Reds, Dempster has given up an awful lot of hits across the board, in 90 at-bats the Reds are hitting .289 against him.  But this is a different Dempster than we’ve seen in the past, so its hopefully going to be a different story today.  Fortunately on a team of home run smashers, only one has been hit against Ryan, during the 4th inning of a Cubs 8-4 loss on September 30th of last year.

The FromWrigley.com pick to click (is that phrase copyrighted?  Its got to be…anyway….) is going to be Aramis Ramirez.  If Ramirez can get ahead in the count against Harang he should get a fastball that he can really pound at.  Pie is also back in the lineup today (or at least when I was looking at the projected lineups earlier he was) and if he gets on base, he’s a good candidate to swipe a couple of bases.  I figure that he’s really coming off an emotional high from his game winning hit last week and needs to stay amped up and continue to grow as a better hitter.